Another firm Friday led us to a higher close on the week again. Whereas the July rally was led by short position covering, we are now in a different phase with the market being driven by speculative buyers of new long positions.
Read MorePrices bobble along sideways for the time being with Nov 26 parked just under £200 on LIFFE. US corn crops are enjoying a benign spell of weather which takes a lot of the stress out of the market, in contrast the impact of the summer’s hot weather on European supply is becoming clear.
Read MoreWheat came under pressure towards the end of last week, markets think the Black Sea situation will follow a similar path to the Iran one, namely that economic necessity will eventually prevail and shipments resume.
Read MoreFriday was a turbulent day opening higher before reported talks between Ukraine and Russia aimed at creating safe shipping lanes in the Black Sea halted the rally. We closed £5 lower but still up on the week.
Read MoreA £10 uptick on the week took us to new highs for the 2026 crop. Concerns at the increased level of shipping attacks in the Black Sea are the driver as both sides hit targets seemingly at will using relatively cheap drone technology, causing a disproportionate level of disruption.
Read MoreMarkets were very quiet all week before suddenly jumping £6 higher on Friday afternoon. With a lot of news stories landing suddenly together it was one of those moments
Read MoreMarkets are almost spookily quiet as we wait for harvest to get going properly, ten days of perfect summer weather in the forecast now should be enough to get us going on everything in the south this week. At this point on the calendar we look to France for insights into the crops potential.
Read MoreAs we anticipated last week, markets are in a quieter phase now, waiting for harvest news. Brent Crude closed Friday at exactly the same price it was the day before the Iran War started so presumably we will now see fuel prices falling as quickly as they went up?
Read MoreBoth oil and grain markets reacted quietly to the signing of the US-Iran ceasefire, probably it was fully priced in by the time the lengthy process concluded, and there were conflicting reports over the weekend about the true situation in the Straits of Hormuz.
Read MoreNovember LIFFE hovered around £180 all week, closing Friday at £179.40. Oil came under renewed pressure as the deal to re-open the Straits of Hormuz seems to be in touching distance.
Read MoreImproved weather across major northern hemisphere crops has allayed the worst fears about 2026 production prospects, markets continue to off-load their recent weather premium in the search for competitiveness on export markets.
Read MoreThe USDA’s 2026 supply projections fully absorbed the worst reports from drought hit US wheat crops, markets were taken a little by surprise and posted £5 gains on Tuesday.
Read MoreLast week, exchanges gave up all of the gains made in the previous week. In fact, in the six weeks since I last sat down to write this report Nov26 LIFFE has moved precisely £0.05.
Read MoreFor the majority of the time, global primary producers – including UK farmers – are Price Takers. Price discovery for grains occurs via various physical and futures markets, with effects from the commodity itself, and the macro markets around it.
Read MoreIn six months’ time, economics in cereal farming is likely to be very different. While the majority of growers have this season’s inputs fixed at pre-War levels, soaring fertiliser prices will effect new crop Harvest 2027 planting decisions.
Read MoreGlobal grain markets peaked on March 31st, bullish bets in ag commodities heavily supported by large specs and hedge funds to close Q1 2026.
Read MoreAs US Infantry ships approach the war zone, America faces her ‘double or quits‘ moment, do they go in on the ground or do they walk away claiming victory?
Read MoreA see-saw week lies ahead as the World holds its breath waiting to see the outcome of escalating threats and deadlines between the US and Iran.
Read MoreGrain sentiment continues to track oil , largely sideways to firmer last week , as the Iran conflict continues.
Read MoreFor most of last week grain markets showed a clear reluctance to rally in response to the unfolding drama in Iran.
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