Monday Market Briefing - 17th November 2025

The USDA got back to work last week just in time to publish their November world supply update on Friday. With the caveat that the Government shutdown meant it was not as heavily updated with fresh data as normal, it did confirm higher output and ending stocks for corn and wheat than the market was expecting. The US corn crop comes in at 425 million tonnes, the first time it has breached the 400 million mark, which is projected to leave the US with an 8 year high ending stock ( even if China buys the 8 million tonnes predicted in the report.)  Markets had been drifty all week waiting for the numbers and the bearish tone was enough to wash away most of the recent rally. However we will hit recent support levels pretty quickly now and any early pressure this week might see some buying interest.

At home the AHDB published its early-bird survey which shows UK wide cropping intentions for 26 harvest. This report has proven a good indicator of crop sizes in years where the weather doesn’t subsequently de-rail farmers plans. Despite the very open autumn drilling season, wheat is shown with only a modest 1% increase this year, so our nett importer status is inked in even at this early stage. Spring barley hectares plummet but almost all of that appears to be in Scotland meaning the English crop might not be much lower than previous years.

Malting barley trade has at last revealed a faint pulse last week, Oct-Dec cargoes are lining up on the berth now and there are spot movement opportunities into Shoreham available. Regardless of your movement plans , do check your farm stored grain for bugs now, the damn things are very prevalent after such a mild autumn.

Have a good week.