Monday Market Briefing - 24th November 2025

Russia and the US are plotting a deal to end the Ukraine war in which both of them profit enormously, leaving Europe to pick up the bill for sorting out the mess thereafter. It remains to be seen if Europe’s supine leadership is capable of pushing back in any meaningful way. If not, the prospect of the war ending quite quickly on difficult terms may become a reality. For our purposes, an early cessation might be the thing that leads to an upswing in global trade and consumption just when we need it. Markets have long since tired of pricing in the war, but a quick end to it should still be seen as moderately bullish.

Australia is the last major harvest to come in this year and is still on track for a hefty output by all accounts, including feed barley which does appear to be tightening up dramatically in Europe due to third Country export demand. We have seen some recovery in malting barley markets as the shipping season gets properly underway and cargoes have to be covered. It’s anyone’s guess frankly, whether the UK still has much of a surplus of malting barley to ship this season and whether the market will come looking for it. New crop prices have improved such that there is a positive carry into next season so June-July interest for old crop will appear eventually for whatever is left at that stage.

Have a good week