Monday Market Briefing - 1st September 2025

As harvest nears completion in all areas some more reliable yield estimates are emerging. The south has done ok, but the further north you travel the situation deteriorates rapidly. It looks like the wheat crop will land around 7.3 mt /hectare , well below ‘normal’ and we probably have a second successive sub 12 million tonne crop. Overall UK demand sits at around 14 million tonnes so even without Vivergo in Hull we may need to import slightly more than normal again this year.  Much higher pass rates on milling wheats should easily offset a reduce acreage of group 1 and 2 varieties, there is plenty of German milling wheat available to meet any issues there.

But the real puzzle will be the feed market. Feed demand is expected to stay strong given the lack of animal feed generally after the dry summer. There should be enough carry over stock in the UK to deal with this but if supply gets tight it might be cheaper to bring this into the south-west from France rather than cart it down from other corners of the UK. Markets are close to import parity now and will need to stay in touch with French prices for the time being. French prices saw modest support last week after the EU corn crop downgrade but this is a drop in the ocean against the size of the US crop so we don’t expect any sustained rally from there.

With sample results streaming out of labs everywhere, this will be the busiest month ahead now for farm trading, milling wheat markets are trading heavily already and malting barley is sure to wake up soon. Make sure you know what you’ve got and get in touch.

Have a good week.