Monday Market Briefing - 22nd September 2025

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% last week – the first rate change of 2025.  This affected global foreign exchange with our sterling: euro rate moving from 1.16 to 1.1475.  If the UK had an export wheat surplus, this would make our values more competitive – but as it stands, this move in exchange rates will make imported wheat more expensive.  This currency move has further consolidated UK wheat values, and prices have remained in a tight price range for the past 5-6 weeks.   

We are discovering large regional differences in wheat availability, and this is distorting values on-farm in deficit areas of feed wheat production.  Westcountry areas, extending as far up as Avon and Hereford, have experienced low wheat yields, and even some failed crops.  Add to this a lack of forage in early summer, and this encouraged some cereal crops to be whole-cropped for silage, further reducing supply.  Despite low historical wheat values, prices in the Westcountry are £10/MT higher than values further east, eating into any milling premium available.

Fortunately, UK flour millers shouldn’t need large milling wheat imports this season as the UK has a large availability of high quality milling wheat, of all grades.  However, millers had to re-grist using Canadian and German imported wheat last year, and with large carry-over stocks and poor demand, they have been slow to change back to UK milling grades.  At present there are good available milling wheat markets for both full-spec, and low-protein wheats for pre-Xmas movement, so please speak with your farm trader to secure a spot while available. 

Malting barley remains slow and poorly priced, but we intend to load a vessel next week – which should be the first new crop malting barley vessel to be shipped from the UK.  Again, there are available markets for October movement if required.

Have a good week