Monday Market Briefing - 29th September 2025

Following the Fed’s interest rate cut last week, US stocks rallied sharply as investors gained confidence for Q4 economic growth.  Part of these investments were funds switching out of commodities and back into equities, further preventing any rally in grains.

Grain markets in the UK continue to grind sideways, with continued light demand and little price direction.  After a busy period of farmer selling during September, growers were firmly occupied with autumn drilling last week and the fine spell of weather is available for the next 7-10 days.  As an aside, as drilling gets earlier and earlier each year, growers must ensure that they make early orders of seed for timely delivery of all varieties & commodities.

Although the UK does not have a NET surplus of wheat this season, quality challenges on the Continent may give rise to some small vessel shipments, particularly of UK soft wheat.  Black Sea wheat – including Romanian and Bulgarian – is lower quality than in previous years, and therefore the value-end of the low spec milling wheat supply is not readily available.  Instead, the Spanish will use larger volumes of French wheat, blending this with high-pro Canadian – and low-pro Spanish wheat.  It’s a complicated picture, but if enough Canadian wheat is unavailable, this may open the door to UK milling wheats – both high and low protein.  Keep in contact with your farm trader for further updates as this market develops.

We load our first new crop vessel of malting barley this week, and this is likely to be the first UK malting barley shipped this season.  For growers requiring spot movement in October, we have available markets, albeit at low malting barley prices.

Have a good week.