Monday Market Briefing - 15th September 2025

The USDA September update came out late Friday, it was neutral/bearish in tone as they continue to shuffle their numbers on corn output – bulging wheat crops elsewhere in the world will offset any tightness in US wheat figures. Market reaction on the bell late Friday was slightly positive probably because the news was not as bearish as some feared.  Perhaps it’s worth adding that annual wheat carry-out stocks globally are expected to shrink again this year as they have in each of the last six years since their 2019 peak. So, big harvests continue meeting the markets short term needs and prices are obviously able to weaken, but it would not be true to say we are building heavier long-term stocks as a result. This is why the markets are still willing to offer a positive price structure carrying into future seasons, it’s justified in part by our vulnerability to any dip in production should there be one.

UK millers were active again last week with some buying all the way out to April -June now, It’s a good moment to take advantage of the later season premiums whilst they are available, there’s every chance that carry will disappear as we go through the season as happened in each of the last two campaigns. It does look like the first malting barley vessels will arrive in October meaning there will be some trading opportunities around these for early movers. Let us know if you have malting barley that needs to go.  

Have a good week.