Monday Market Briefing - 20th April 2026

In six months’ time, economics in cereal farming is likely to be very different.  While the majority of growers have this season’s inputs fixed at pre-War levels, soaring fertiliser prices will effect new crop Harvest 2027 planting decisions.  By the time we reach the autumn, either grain prices will have rallied to offset the higher nitrogen cost, or fertiliser availability – and therefore cost – will have fallen, making cereal gross margins more acceptable. 

Meanwhile, the world thought we had a breakthrough on Friday afternoon with Trump declaring a peace treaty between Lebanon and Isreal, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.  Commodities prices – including oil – tumbled on Friday afternoon and stock markets rallied.  48 hours later, the US have fired upon an Iranian cargo vessel, and the upcoming Peace talks in Pakistan between the US and Iran may not even materialise. Oil has traded 5% higher and stocks now look wobbly on the opening of the Asian markets.

Fundamentally, the huge commodity volatility has little affect on the spot Supply and Demand of the grain markets.  Global stocks are very healthy of corn, wheat and soybeans giving a good buffer should the weather turn difficult over the coming months.  European winter wheat conditions – including the UK – look very favourable, although spring crops will need some added rainfall to sustain development.

Please contact the Grain Dept for any further information on current developments. 

Have a good week.