Monday Market Briefing - 27th April 2026

For the majority of the time, global primary producers – including UK farmers – are Price Takers.  Price discovery for grains occurs via various physical and futures markets, with effects from the commodity itself, and the macro markets around it.  Typically, farmers sell into this price, accepting the value on a given day acting independently. 

However, there are certain times when circumstances are particularly distorted and when farmers end up acting collectively – whether they know about it or not.  The extreme price of fertiliser due to the Iranian situation, together with limited upside reaction from grain prices has encouraged farmers to collectively withdraw from marketing grain, becoming Price Makers.  This absence of selling, plus some new dryness concerns for wheat in the US Plains has caused the market to remain supported.  In effect, the US/Iran conflict pushed the grain market higher, but the lack of farmer selling has kept the values supported.

Further to last week’s Briefing, we spoke about two scenarios – either higher grain prices, or lower Nitrogen values.  We are starting to see the first signs of some weakening of the fertiliser market, with UK domestic nitrogen being offered at lower prices than previous weeks.  Fertiliser manufacturing will take advantage of these higher values for as long as the Iranian situation persists.  There seems to be limited interest in further escalation of the USA’s involvement in the conflict, so finding a way for Trump to withdraw troops while saving face should free up shipments through the Strait of Hormuz for oil, gas and fertilisers.

As always, contact the Grain Department on 01243755650 for further information. 

Have a good week.