Monday Market Briefing - 13th April 2026

Global grain markets peaked on March 31st, bullish bets in ag commodities heavily supported by large specs and hedge funds to close Q1 2026.  Pushing wheat prices higher at month-end without further positive news has since retracted values 5% - new crop feed wheat back to around £165/MT depending on location.  Most crop analysts have stopped trying to predict the latest mood from Washington and Tel Aviv, and the effect on the grain markets.  Fundamentally, we have healthy global grain stocks as we approach the season of Northern Hemisphere planting of corn and soybeans.

The macro situation regarding delays in the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted supply chains, particularly in the availability of fertiliser.  Learning lessons from the Ukrainian situation, UK growers can still achieve positive gross margins, but not if farmers reduced their input spend on variable costs of fertiliser and agchem.  Fortunately, the majority of UK growers already have nitrogen purchased at last season’s price – roughly half the value of current new season replacement.  Using winter milling wheat as a typical example with usual growing costs, yield is obviously the key factor on making a positive contribution to this year’s profitability.  Maximising timely nitrogen applications, and growing for the correct milling market will lead to >8 MT/Ha yield.  Conversely, the lack of feed wheat homes in the South East will impact feed wheat growers, particularly if growers are encourages to save fertiliser, and achieve lower yielding, less profitable crops.

Keep in contact with the Bartholomews Grain Desk for further updates. 

Have a good week.