Monday Market Briefing - 12th October 2026

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Fridays World supply and demand update from the USDA was neutral for wheat but threw a significant surprise by increasing the estimate of US corn yields significantly. The extra tonnage easily outweighs the loss of production in Europe where the corn harvest has now finished. Corn has been trading at a hefty premium to wheat recently on the exchanges, not a normal scenario. It’s not necessarily the case that wheat needs to weaken but the bottom line is the world appears to have more grain overall than we thought, and we might be in for a bumpy couple of weeks as the two grains try to realign themselves in this new better supplied situation.

Trumps deal with Russia over fuel supply did not impress oil markets, possibly the volumes involved weren’t big enough. The Yemeni Houthi’s actions in striking Riyadh airport this weekend, at a range of 600 miles, might have more impact. The group must be assumed to have effective control of the Red Sea now, and can cut off the Suez Canal at will. The potential impact on the World economy is obvious, grain shipments have long since been largely re-routed but it’s a further complication in this year’s logistical puzzle. Australia looks set to hoover up a lot of Asian demand, if these latest USDA figures are correct, world trade might simply be able to get by without the Russian/European surplus leaving that effectively stranded in the second half of the season.

Have a good week.