Monday Market Briefing - 19th October 2026

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Markets reacted calmly to the previous Fridays WASDE report, and ended the week close to unchanged. As always, Australia is the last major grain crop to come in with harvest starting any day now. The Aussie Wheat Board had been extremely cautions about 2026 prosects earlier in the summer but all crops have since benefitted from good conditions and a 24 million tonne wheat surplus is back on the cards. That’s not a record and it’s in line with the last WASDE forecast but it does point to some competitive tendering into Asian markets in the near term. Russia has a big crop to export and is increasingly reliant on access to the Baltic Port of Kaliningrad to keep grain moving, that’s a potential flashpoint as said grain has to transit at least one European neighbour to get there. The potential for system shocks is obvious, but for now world trade is quietly getting on with the job it seems.

GBP is at long term highs against the Euro, it’s not so much our currencies strength , more Euro weakness that is at the root of that as civil unrest grows in France and Spain. This makes imported wheat cheaper and the market carries an expectation that some inbound feed wheat cargoes will be needed in the latter part of the season. Despite the manifest uncertainties it does feel like the market is comfortable in a quieter phase for the time being.

At home malting barley execution is just waking up, domestic prices are far in excess of the offers out of France and Scandinavia so no export trade is possible this season. Some flex on quality on delivery is possible but farm lots will need to be pretty solidly in spec to be sure of safe passage.

Have a good week.