Monday Market Briefing - 5th October 2026

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Markets stabilised last week after spending all of September on the wane. Most of the support is for Jan – June 2027 as pre-Christmas positions look well supplied. Russia’s wheat crop is coming in slightly higher than last years confirming the story of the year, we have plenty of grain, but can we get it to where it’s needed ? Transportation costs are under immense pressure with pump prices still rising despite a dip in crude oil futures last week. Trump seems to realise US domestic fuel prices are an issue in Novembers mid -term elections and is looking for ways to ease them that don’t involve admitting defeat in Iran. Hence, we find ourselves learning a lot about the international diesel trade. Ultimately of course, higher transport costs impact prices at the farm gate.

At home , some of the short term over supply we have seen in feed barley markets is also appearing in feed wheat now. It might seem counter intuitive and it certainly doesn’t mean markets won’t get tight later on - but as we said last week, domestic markets just aren’t very good at absorbing even small supply spikes and long ago sold Oct-Dec contracts are open for delivery now creating a brief flourish of parcels that need to be moved.

Have a good week.