Monday Market Briefing - 9th June 2025

Last week was a quiet one on the markets, £180 on NOV25 LIFFE is becoming a significant barrier, we spent most of the week below it before rallying to close bang on the number Friday. Depending on your exact location this implies ex farm feed wheat values for November between £165-£175 which everyone agrees is too cheap but we need an incentive for a move higher and so far none is emerging. Further forward into 2026 crop £180 ex farm is still achievable and this seems to be where the market thinks ‘neutral’ value lies now.

Our grain breakfast meetings got off to a flying start with great numbers and equally strong debate at the two meetings so far. Farmers in the west are cautious ( to put it mildly ) about yield prospects for all crops this year and presumably we are going to hear similar as the meetings move eastwards next week. There’s no sign of a change in the current weather patterns for at least anther two weeks, a brief burst of warmth this Friday is quickly replaced by a return to colder weather the following week. Rain is never far away, although the south looks to get away quite lightly, but Lincolnshire now has 80mm in its 14 day forecast which might be more than is welcome at this stage.

The EU confirmed a temporary return for Ukraine of the pre-war tariff arrangements which, if extended beyond the summer, would severely curtail the exceptional volumes of Ukrainian wheat flowing into Europe. However, with old crop shipments largely finished and new crop not due to kick off until October, there is a three month window now to complete negotiations across a wide range of trade items and we won’t know the long-term position until these talks are concluded.

Have a good week.