Monday Market Briefing - 16th June 2025

End-of-week rallies are in fashion, as again, a positive Friday performance brought wheat back to unchanged for the week. Generally, crop reports remain very positive for output this year, and these were leading us lower, but then the Israel/Iran conflict took centre stage. From our industry perspective, this spat is quite different from the Black Sea one as it’s taking place in a non-grain producing region, but if it develops further, it could impact the World’s biggest shipping routes, and that’s enough to concern markets.

So, any price action we see is likely limited to traders generally trimming positions and de-risking themselves until the dust settles. It was notable that corn prices did not follow higher as prospects in that market remain resolutely bearish. Our market has a tricky week ahead, the weekend has seen some escalation both in terms of missile numbers and rhetoric, so a push higher early this week seems likely but any fresh move takes us above the Nov LIFFE £180 threshold, which grain fundamentals mean the market is reluctant to cross.  

In a nutshell, if we do get a blip higher this week, it’s likely a selling opportunity and worth a dabble.

Have a good week.