Monday Market Briefing - 21st September 2026

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Oil rallied to $109/barrel on Sept 11th as the Saudi oil pipeline to the Red Sea was damaged in an Iraqi drone strike – orchestrated by the Iranians.  Crude prices have since fallen as there seems to be a renewed effort in finding peace in the Gulf – however likely one thinks this can be achieved.  Lower oil prices should filter down to down production costs for fertiliser and diesel – two of the most painful inputs for UK farmers currently.  Add to this a potential peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine (again, unlikely given the compromise demands of land transfer), then the wheat market could be under downward price pressure as more Black Sea volume becomes available.  It will be a macro change to global markets that affects the grain price – not grain fundamentals themselves.

Meanwhile, the UK is set for a long spell of dry weather to enable planting of winter wheat over the next couple of weeks.  The rally from £160/MT earlier this year, to approx. £200/MT for Autumn 2026 has led to further areas being drilled with winter wheat as farm profitability improves – even at current nitrogen fertiliser prices.  Farmers should keep one eye on the grain markets during the drilling period, as often we experience a short-lived rally while growers dis-engage from selling last year’s crop.  UK feed barley stocks are also growing with poor spring malting quality and disappointing malting premiums available.

Have a good week