Monday Market Briefing - 14th September 2026

Markets finished lower for a second week running after a week of two halves. There was a bullish tone early on as optimism around the US brokered mediation between Russia and Ukraine quickly evaporated. Then trade was skittled by the emerging scale of the Argentinian corn crop, outstripping their previous best by 20% and potentially adding 15 million tonnes to their exportable surplus. A number of early season trades have already been made into Africa replacing Black Sea material. This news easily overshadowed Fridays WASDE report which did trim US corn prospects slightly.

Ukrainian corn is free to flow into the EU when river levels recover, it’s more difficult for wheat to follow the same route as pre-war quotas are restored and still in place – effectively restricting the amount that can come in - and would need political intervention to adjust them. This is all getting very complicated. In a nutshell, we know markets are carrying around a £25 premium for war risk. We can also see the 2026 crop is big enough to get the job done, the nagging problem is will it all be able to get to where it’s needed ?  Markets are not ready to give up the risk premium right now especially as the Black Sea situation seems to be getting worse – but have we reached the point where the upside is smaller than the downside ?

Have a good week.