Monday Market Briefing-16th March 2026

Grain sentiment continues to track oil , largely sideways to firmer last week , as the Iran conflict continues. Probably by now, the US has achieved about as much as it can by aerial bombardment leaving the Iranian regime still in place so the question becomes what’s next ? It doesn’t appear that the US has a strategy beyond this point, so the markets attention will focus specifically on the prospects of shipping using the Straits of Hormuz. Again, this is not an important shipping lane for grains but it certainly is for oil. Right now opening these lanes seems a tall order but if that can be achieved it will go a long way to calming the crisis.

This time last year spring barley was 95% drilled in England , a significant indicator for the bold crop that followed, whereas this year we think we are closer to 20%, we do have a good weather forecast out to the end of March now so presumably the crop will go in. However, that crop might well dip below 600K hectares for the first time in ages which without good yields would imply some tightness of supply for the UK. Of course, all the time the malt industry stays on the sidelines, supply numbers don’t matter but wouldn’t it be hilarious if the beer market woke up in early 2027 only to find we haven’t got any malt to make it with ?  It’s all a long way off but you can write the script.

Have a good week.