Monday Market Briefing - 19th April 2021

Ten day forecasts still suggest no rain for most of north-western Europe, and we do now have ourselves a proper weather market. Futures traded higher all last week and start on a firmer note again this morning. The Friday close was the highest yet for the new crop position and brings £170 ex farm for pre-Christmas feed wheat into view in some areas. This week we expect markets to maintain a firmer tone, but we are getting into a price environment now where there will need to be an actual crop problem to keep us up here. In other words, when rain enters the forecast, expect markets to correct.

Crops in southern UK still look very well despite the weather, however, one consequence of the lengthy cool spell is that wheat is now estimated at 10-14 days late across the region. That could become very important in creating a window of opportunity for old crop balances filling the gap end July, first week August. Malting barley also firmed up this week, French farmers reportedly re-drilled a fair amount of winter barley acres with spring varieties in response to frost damage, its too early to say how great an impact this could have on the already tight supply but it can’t have improved it.

Have a good week and stay safe.