Monday Market Briefing - 14th June 2021

Old crop markets finally saw some good action last week, opportunities to sort out balances at the inflated old crop price should not be missed. New crop was trimmed  £2.00 on LIFFE – as harvest approaches European farmers were drawn to the high price levels and some selling pressure particularly on malting barley helped set the tone. Just as well as there’s literally no old crop barley left anywhere in Europe. Interest for feed barley remains keen so we saw a narrowing of premiums for the malting grade.

Generally markets still feel very much under-pinned, and we expect another similar week with any dips finding buying interest. The USDA’s latest update offered no real direction, but the condition ratings of the US corn crop suggest their record yield forecast might be optimistic and one satellite modeller did call the crop much lower last week, wiping out 12 million tonnes with their forecast. Others pointed to rain in key growing areas.  (Look hard enough in June and you will find a stat to support practically any point of view.)

Our own wheat crop is a bit of an enigma, has it caught up from the cold spring or is it still ten days late?  Conditions suggest good yield potential but is it really there? It does look clear that we are an exporter again this year with the surplus potentially well over one million tonnes, and bio-ethanol plants appear wedded to corn despite the apparently unfavourable parity. This shouldn’t be an issue as we are currently well priced to attract European interest for early cargoes – roll on the real physical markets!

Have a good week and stay safe.