Monday Market Briefing - 22nd January 2024

The downside momentum in wheat markets has continued but by the end of last week there was a whiff of a change in tone. The hefty South American corn harvest still weighs on sentiment, but the rapidly expanding conflict in the Middle East makes US wheat a good bet now if you are a buyer and quite like the idea of your cargoes actually arriving in one piece. Some sort of rally in over-sold Chicago wheat looks likely and that probably halts the slide everywhere for the time being.  

Here we have a very brief return to wild and windy weather, then from midweek an extended spell of warm dry weather opens up – positively spring like if the forecast holds – which must be good for late drilled wheat of which there may still be more to go in. We are increasingly sceptical that the supposed explosion in spring barley acres will be anything like as dramatic as some claimed, we will get a bigger crop yes, but some way short of the 2020 harvest on current projections. Chat at the Norfolk Dinner last week was of renewed spring barley demand in the spring / summer which is likely to run into a lack of offers when it comes. 

UK customs figures make grim reading, with inbound wheat and corn vastly outweighing our paltry exports. Despite a poor crop there will be no tightness in old crop wheat supply as we go towards the seasons conclusion, the strong premiums attached to most grades of milling wheat must be worth attention if you have some left to do.  

Have a good week.