Monday Market Briefing - 15th January 2024

May futures dipped below £190 for the first time last week, a downside breakout which might put some further pressure on values this week. A slightly bearish tone to the USDA update late Friday didn’t help matters but it was also a week that saw keen farm selling for the first time in a while and that may have contributed to the wobble more than dry statistics. It was hard to spot a reason for the burst of activity, maybe we are just getting bored of waiting for a rally. Now of course, the Middle East driven spike in fertiliser prices presents a conundrum for grain markets which are obviously not inclined to follow upwards at the moment but may have to if more grain is to be released.

European farmers have the perfect incentive to hold off as reports from all across Europe point to poor drilling conditions – at least as bad as the UK- and lost acres everywhere you look. Updates to come from Coceral and others are bound to paint a sorry picture for the 2024 crop across the region. That said, some wheat was drilled in southern England last week and we have another largely dry week ahead ( apart from a snow threat on Wednesday ) so maybe this particular story has another chapter in it yet.

The early months of the year are busy in Ports generally, we have another two malting barley vessels in this week, and there are good opportunities to trade out remaining material now. Domestically there is good interest especially for nearby positions for most grades. Oats continue to be the years hottest ticket, if you have some left call for a bid.

Have a good week.