Monday Market Briefing - 20th November 2023

Markets continue the long march sideways for another week, drifting slightly but within the range still, the US heads into thanksgiving on Thursday with a shortened trading session Friday also, so we are probably in for a quiet week again.  Small upwards revisions to wheat output seen in new data mean that the 2022 and 2023 harvests are now confirmed as producing the two biggest wheat crops worldwide ever recorded. It is interesting to note that consumption will outstrip both these crops ( let’s stop talking about reduced demand ! ) leaving us with less stocks at the end than we started with.  This helps explain why forward markets for next year are better than current prices, the ever-present risk of a major crop failure is always there. However, all the time we avoid a calamity, markets won’t worry much, and early yields are reportedly good in the Australian harvest.

The rest of 2023 looks busy on execution with a strong line up of vessels due in Port and most pre-Christmas markets filled up now. New crop trading is active with good forward prices and contracting options on the table. We are anticipating a busy Jan-March campaign on malting barley particularly, this year’s crop is proving a little fragile on germination so it’s vital to ensure everyone has an opportunity to get their barns cleared whilst quality holds firm.