Monday Market Briefing - 19th February

Crop forecasters were out in force last week, the USDA outlook conference in Washington DC posted the first US crop guess for next year, predicting a 2.5 million hectare swing out of corn and wheat mostly in favour of soybeans, it will be interesting to see if the imminent farmer intention surveys back this up. Strategie Grains pegged Europe’s 2024 wheat crop lower again at 122.5 mln tonnes which would be well below previous highs. Lastly IGC weighed in with their latest opinion suggesting – despite a record corn crop - ending stocks for all grains this year will have tightened for the 7th year in a row.

Clearly then, at a global level there is no crisis of demand, but the American conference noted that US ending stocks for wheat and corn are seen building as traders struggle to compete in world markets. The truth is, the Russian Ruble has now lost one third of its value since early 2022. Hence Russian sellers continue to hunt ever lower Dollar bids for their exports knowing these sales will still translate into a domestic bonanza for farmers in Ruble terms.

Home markets are still quite active especially in nearby positions. Buyers are getting used to waiting until the last possible moment before filling their bins, meaning there is significant activity most days for prompt delivery slots domestically. Milling wheats and feed grains are plentiful on farm, malting barley and especially oats are drying up fast. Speak to the office or your farm trader for the latest bids.

Have a good week.