Monday Market Briefing - 12th February 2024

A modest rally on Friday can’t disguise the fact that wheat had another tough week, extending the recent lows on old crop where the carry to new is approaching £20/MT - incentive enough for anyone with the space to do it. Stats came out showing the extent of Ukraine’s impact on our markets with EU wheat imports this season currently running at 5.6 million tonnes compared to only 1.7 million for the same period in 2021-22 before hostilities kicked off.

Farmers across Europe are agitating, perhaps the only surprise is that it’s taken this long. Bones of contention vary by region but include cheap imports, new taxes, new regulations and green agendas. The EU has recent history of bending to such pressure and has already announced a major shift in the ‘Green Deal’ either cancelling or deferring measures that were supposed to take effect this year. It’s increasingly clear that green practices will in reality be driven by the food industry developing proper incentives for farmers to farm better, just as they should be.

Nov 24 LIFFE closed Friday at £193/MT, interestingly the equivalent Nov 22 position averaged about £197/MT in the three months prior to the war’s start. Notwithstanding the trials of old crop, we are more or less back where we were (or maybe slightly over sold), and could expect to see more support at this level.

In other news, we currently have a vacancy for a grain forwarder / administrator to join the grain marketing desk at Bartholomews. Based at either our Chichester or Sparkford offices, it’s an important role and a great opportunity for anyone interested in a career in this sector. Check the careers page on our website for more details or click on the link https://www.bartholomews.co.uk/commercial-grain-forwarder