Monday Market Briefing - 16th October 2023

We continue to rumble along sideways but with a lot more action going on. Egypt booked a large tender of mostly Russian wheat and China bought US wheat for a second week in a row. China’s rain affected harvest produced plenty of feed wheat but they are now forced to come in for higher quality material to balance their internal demand- a move which seems set to drive their buying above the usual self-imposed 10 million tonne cap this year. They might well come in for French wheat in the coming weeks – an idea that is adding some support to European markets.

Much talk at the European Bourse in Warsaw was about how long the westerly flow of cheap Ukrainian wheat will continue, no end seen before Feb March at the earliest and meanwhile our Spanish friends confirmed all their Ports remain stuffed full of early imports so no relief there. So export markets for wheat are very difficult at the moment but DEFRA figures published last week indicate a UK wheat crop around 14.0 million tonnes this year, down 1.5 million on 2022 and way below early summer estimates. If true it’s a number that will tend to increase imports but still leave us with a pretty modest export surplus for the season.

We might see markets cautiously tiptoe higher this week. Recent experience tells us, if they do, it’s a selling opportunity.

Have a good week.