All about the US Election this week, with the only certainty being the huge uncertainty over the result.
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UK grains finished on a weaker note last week as we saw the first tender date for London Nov 24 futures arrive. This is the process where a futures contract, in existent for up to 2.5 years and traded numerous times can be transferred into an actual physical contract that can be collected and delivered into a feed mill.
Read MoreLast week the AHDB released its provisional UK crop production estimate, pegging the crop at 11.1mmt, down 2.9 mmt from last harvest 2023.
Read MoreLast week Defra released their provisional estimates for 2024 English cereal and oilseed rape production.
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With growing tensions in the Middle East, we have seen some nervousness in macro indicators including the oil price – up $9/barrel over two weeks
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The grain market turns its attention to the USDA’s global grains stocks report tomorrow which is expected to show the largest Sep 1st stocks of corn, soybeans and wheat since 2020.
Read MoreAlthough the UK does not currently have an export surplus, the biggest threat to grain prices this season is the oversupply of feed wheat – dragging down the base price.
Read MoreIt’s likely that August Bank Holiday saw the bottom of this market as the rally extends now to a third week. Thursday’s USDA report did have some bearish numbers in it but didn’t hold things back for long.
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As we thought likely, last week markets stopped going down, which is the first thing they need to do if they are to have a chance of going back up.
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UK markets opened after the holiday weekend with an alarming £5 dip to set a new low, then spent the rest of the shortened week recovering to finish just above unchanged.
Read MoreCommodities remain under severe pressure with no respite in sight for the time being, a potentially enormous US corn crop looms over everything still.
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Markets had another push lower last week. Egypt’s spectacular tender was not fulfilled, they bought no more than their usual quantities, asking for 277 days credit on cargoes probably didn’t help.
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Despite a week of dramatic news, markets refused to budge from their stubbornly sideways stance all week.
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Harvest continues at a good pace in most areas and we’ve seen enough wheat now to have a sense of the crop we are dealing with.
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Markets are still dithering over harvest prospects - unsure of the next direction to take and hungry for every scrap of information.
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We had a see-saw week ending up unchanged. Mondays USDA report confirmed what we already knew that the US wheat crop is performing very well, we traded lower.
Read MoreMarkets continue losing ground , transfixed by the good progress of the US wheat harvest which will be confirmed in Mondays USDA progress report later today.
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Markets were under pressure early last week but eventually shrugged this off to end higher with Fridays close on Nov LIFFE being the first weekend close above £200 for some time.
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We had a flat sideways week in the end after LIFFE tried a couple of times to break up through £200 but lacked the buying interest to keep it there.
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Markets remain very quiet but still tending to drift lower as buyers wait on the sidelines
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