Monday Market Briefing - 14th July 2025

Prices continue to track sideways- it does appear we have found the bottom of the long sell-off – but impressive yields and quality across practically all northern hemisphere harvests will weigh on markets for the time being. Friday’s USDA stock update brought some support into the market towards the end of last week, but it contained no surprises. Early wheat yields are above five-year averages, and traders think the US Government are underestimating likely corn yields by some margin – time will tell.

At home, harvest was properly underway this weekend - two weeks ahead of schedule – with much talk of 1976 when it was all over by the first week of August. ( I don’t suppose there will be anyone in the trade who remembers that year, but plenty of farmers do.)  Fortunately, it looks like we have a crop that has withstood the challenges of the weather – early samples through the lab show big, bold berries and no sign of protein dilution. We will learn a lot more this week for sure. Forecasts are indicating a brief rain interruption late on Tuesday before the weather settles down for another week.

New crop markets generally are quite lightly traded so far, meaning there should be a surge in demand post-harvest, and the interesting test will be how much farm selling is there to meet that demand. In the short term, however, movement prospects will be much more limited throughout July and August as there is more old crop in the system awaiting movement than normal, particularly wheat. Look lively if you think you will need to move any harvest material this year

Have a good week.