Monday Market Briefing - 9th March 2026

For most of last week grain markets showed a clear reluctance to rally in response to the unfolding drama in Iran. In the end a firmer Friday left us +£2 on old crop and +£4 on new crop wheat. Whatever the situation in Iran is, it's not Ukraine and the implications for our markets are unclear, but very much over-shadowed by the backdrop of heavy global supply. 

That said, the Worlds biggest wheat exporter is Russia, who are watching the destruction of their main strategic ally in the region (since the collapse of Syria) with dismay. The idea that Russia might seek to leverage it's wheat supply status in some way if the conflict escalates, partly explains why wheat has been the upside leader so far leaving corn lagging behind.

For the time being then, expect grains to be a reluctant follower of oil prices which will be the main yardstick for the crisis. Brent crude closed Friday at $92 (up from $72 before kick-off) and has been widely tipped to reach $100 unless/until there are some signs of the war slowing. It's a new crop selling opportunity especially if you have your fertiliser booked, but judging the precise moment to act will be tricky. 

Have a good week.