Monday Market Briefing - 20th July 2026

A £10 uptick on the week took us to new highs for the 2026 crop. Concerns at the increased level of shipping attacks in the Black Sea are the driver as both sides hit targets seemingly at will using relatively cheap drone technology, causing a disproportionate level of disruption. Grain vessels have not been involved so far although there are reports of damage to silo facilities around Odessa. It’s easy to see how markets fear a re-run of the 2022 position where grain movements were paralysed for a time. The cynical amongst us will wonder at the timing of this activity, just before harvest starts, adding value as it now does to both Countries exports so long as ships continue moving.

The resumption of bombing in the Gulf rallied oils but not as dramatically as last time, perhaps because markets now have a greater expectation for order to be restored at some point. It’s too early to say if the Black Sea situation will play out similarly but for now its best viewed as an excellent selling opportunity.

Labs up and down the Country are seeing lots of wheat samples now, quality is extremely good, vintage even, but yields vary wildly. Sussex and Kent are ok , further west not so good. East Anglia also has well publicised issues but further north it quickly improves. The combination of high pass rates and low yields makes for a complicated picture on milling wheat premiums but first moves inevitably are lower if only because millers are not geared up to respond to a July harvest and clearly are not being given any reason to rush in. Spring barleys in the south have held on well with very few crops being ready to go by the weekend just gone. Let’s hope that bodes well for the crop when we see it later this week.

Have a good week.