Monday Market Briefing - 18th May 2026

The USDA’s 2026 supply projections fully absorbed the worst reports from drought hit US wheat crops, markets were taken a little by surprise and posted £5 gains on Tuesday. As with the previous rally we then spent the rest of the week watching that value erode. Wheat had opened a 200 cents/bushel premium over corn for the first time in a few years and US wheat immediately looked expensive against a backdrop of heavy stocks and relatively good crop predictions outside the US bubble. Nonetheless it was fun whilst it lasted and an opportunity for farmers to grab some forward value before the retreat came.

If the US crop doesn’t matter too much in overall supply terms, it might still play a part in creating some tightness in high protein milling wheat flows, not the year to skimp on fertiliser applications then regardless of the replacement cost of that material just now. Reports from Trumps visit to China will have caused great alarm in Taiwan, it also disappointed traders hoping that significant trade deals would be signed. There is a suspicion that China are just playing the market and will indeed come in for US corn when they judge the price to be better value than it is today.

European crops are in good shape, France has had more rain than us , southern England has had more than the north but with all areas due a top up this week before the weather turns sunny and warm, ( heating off at last ? ) our crops are running out of excuses. The UK looks set to have a nett wheat surplus for the first time in a while which would give the market a different tone next season. Barring shocks, another drifty week is in prospect.

Have a good week.