Monday Market Briefing - 17th August 2026

Another firm Friday led us to a higher close on the week again. Whereas the July rally was led by short position covering, we are now in a different phase with the market being driven by speculative buyers of new long positions. We might ask what’s the difference?  Only that its likely to be a more volatile period with the appetite for new risk fluctuating quickly on whatever news stories emerge.

Front lines in Ukraine are largely static with the focus now more on aerial drone bombardment from each side. Over the weekend this activity appears to have shifted away from port facilities and onto other loosely defined strategic military targets, but its clear both sides can hit anything more-or-less at will.

Harvest in southern Russia is largely complete with increased yields widely reported, stark contrast to the French maize crop which is repeatedly downgraded  - there is visible stress in maize crops here now as well. Most of the south and east of England will catch an odd shower this week but the remainder of August still has barely 10mm in the forecast so we are not out the other side of this yet. Feed wheat prices stay firm but feed barley has not followed so keenly, that market is much better supplied by downgraded malting barley samples for the time being.

Have a good week.