Monday Market Briefing - 16th February 2026

Spot markets plod sideways, last week’s WASDE did indeed forecast the heavy year end stocks we are all expecting this summer. Markets will always fret about the pace of monthly exports but essentially we know where we are going to be come the July 1st cut off. Perhaps more surprisingly, latest reports indicate winter sown crops are in excellent condition at this early stage in most parts of Europe including UK. Russia also now anticipates a 90 million tonne wheat crop this term, marking a return to form after smaller crops in 24 and 25. Maltsters wont panic about a bit of delayed drilling of spring crops if they know the winters are in good fettle.

Of course, UK prices have been propped up in the last two years by poor harvests at home meaning supply has been relatively tight. If there is a trend towards higher yields this year and we follow it, welcome as that might be at farm level,  the size of crop we think we have sown this year, if it does yield well, could easily tilt us back into having an export surplus again whereby we have to compete with our neighbours for access in a well-supplied market. That means adjusting lower from the off.  It’s a classic moment to consider locking in some forward value whist it’s still available, a modest percentage of your 2026 and 2027 crop business done at base price only, secures better prices forward than are achievable spot today, and carries no quality risk . Speak to your farm trader if you want to explore these markets further.

Have a good week.