Monday Market Briefing - 12th May 2025

Another tough week for wheat prices saw Nov LIFFE close below £180 on Friday, its likely now we will have something of a stand-off with growers obviously unwilling to lock into prices perceived as below the cost of production. This should mean buyers wanting to cover forward positions will have to pay a bit more to squeeze out any supply. A lack of urgency by said buyers is what allows the market to continue drifting for now.

It was interesting that agriculture featured quite prominently in the UK/US trade deal which was otherwise quite limited in scope overall. The NFU cautiously welcomed the beef deal which does not dilute UK food standards in any way, this implies that the UK government has realised the importance of maintaining alignment on food standards with the EU as key in upcoming negotiations there. Possibly of more concern is the lifting of import tariffs on US ethanol which looks capable of undermining our own bioethanol production – a key component in demand for feed wheat for a decade or more now. We’ll have to wait and see how that one plays out.

Out and about last week most crops appear to be coping with the dry spell quite well, long range forecasts this weekend are looking slightly more unsettled so let’s hope we all catch some rain soon.

Have a good week.