Monday Market Briefing - 12th January 2026

Markets were extremely quiet across the Christmas break, grinding along sideways and steadily eroding the deferred month carries as we go. This Monday sees a USDA stocks update, there is a sense that usage and world trade has been higher in the autumn than predicted and a corresponding dip in stocks may show up in the new numbers. If so, it won’t be enough to shift us from the inescapable realities of a bumper world crop now safely in the barn everywhere, but it might force the hand of a few shorts needing to cover positions in a market that realistically doesn’t have much downside left in it.

The US Government has announced an interim support package for US farmers intended to tide them over until new larger measures are published later this year. Corn growers will be the biggest beneficiaries of the $11 billion Bridge Assistance Programme. One consequence of this might be that farmers will likely plant the crop fully again this year and any new crop premium associated with the risk of reduced plantings becomes vulnerable.

Uk feed wheat markets remain perfectly suspended half-way between import and export parities , meaning home produce is cheap enough to stop feed wheat being imported, but it’s also too expensive to be competitive for export. As we’ve noted before our home supply and demand balance becomes more-or-less irrelevant in these conditions, we simply carry over anything that’s left at year end.

Flour millers are now filling in their capacity for the April -July period so it might be a good idea to tackle that one if you have milling wheat still to place. Interest for old crop malting barley is still sporadic at best, despite a busy shipping programme for existing sales it’s not clear where the next trades come from with other European origins significantly cheaper than us for the time being.

Have a good week.