UK Spring Barley Markets 2020-2021: An Overview

Much of the South of England received welcome rain in the past 24 hours so this is a good moment to take stock of the prospects for the coming season for barley and particularly malting barley.

Analysts have been queuing up to write the obituary of the UK barley markets for months now, but malting barley traded at £150 ex-farm in East Anglia today for Jan collection, since when was that a bad price? If you’ve been farming for more than five minutes you will know that the secrets of the coming seasons malting barley market rarely reveal themselves in the May Supply & Demand estimates.

It is fair to say that the numbers this year look unusual and raise a lot of questions. For the UK, last year’s bumper crop was built on the foundations of early drilling, kind weather and very big yields. This year we certainly don’t have such a benign landscape and even ‘5-year average’ yields look a long shot.

In reality, we currently expect the UK’s 2020 barley crop (despite the increased acreage), to be significantly smaller than last years. Still historically a big crop but well within the scope of a normally functioning market to absorb.

So far so good, but unfortunately the demand side of the market cannot be remotely described as normal. It is very difficult to gauge the extent to which Covid19 related demand destruction will appear. We know beer consumption plummeted immediately in the lockdown phase of the pandemic with large quantities of beer disposed of. Old crop barley positions have been largely traded out; malting barley sold as feed where necessary. In some areas of the world, large quantities of processed malt have been placed in storage awaiting better times and this plays havoc with typical forecasting models.

Almost certainly, the UK will again be a supplier of large feed barley cargoes in the world market this year. We also face a serious wheat supply issue at home which must create additional feed barley demand. Both these factors help mitigate the worst implications of the endless Brexit process ending in ‘no-deal’ at Christmas.

There will be a dash to fulfil sales into Europe in Oct-Dec 2020 as the next deadline looms. On the balance of probabilities however, we must be hopeful that a deal will be struck, and we have access to these important markets indefinitely. At this point, there is every reason to expect that a healthy market will function normally.  On that basis, we firmly advise that all growers should continue to nurture their spring barley crops to maximise their malting potential wherever possible.

BAF Standard Terms

This marketing note coincides with the release of our BAF Standard Terms Spring Barley Contract 2020, which is now available to view HERE on our website. 

Please call the grain office on

01243 755650

if you would like to discuss this contract or sign up to it.