Monday Market Briefing - 8th February 2021

Old crop markets drifted last week, despite Egypt’s wheat tender. They bought 8 X 60,000mt cargoes of wheat for March shipment at prices lower than the cancelled tender in Jan but still new highs for the season. France were successful for the first time this campaign , bagging four vessels – the rest came from the Black Sea (despite taxes) where supplies are visibly dwindling. Escalating freight costs are becoming a big factor even for French wheat to get to Egypt, which explains why more distant origins such as the US are not featuring. Maybe its too early to write off our old crop markets just yet.

This week sees the USDA back in action with the latest stocks report due Tuesday. The continuing high pace of US corn exports and some new South American crop downgrades all point to a further tightening of stocks but this is likely priced into markets . The numbers might be quietly supportive rather than explosive. Soon the markets focus will shift towards 21 crop prospects but for now it looks like a quiet week with modest scope for price movement either way.

Have a good week and stay safe.