Monday Market Briefing - 4th April 2022

Markets drifted towards the end of last week - as we said in last week’s update, the market has run out of momentum for now. Shelling of previously untouched Odessa on Sunday was consistent with Russia’s declared intention of moving focus to the south and east of Ukraine. However, as Russian troops withdraw from battle grounds in the north, what we will see this week is a lot of on-the-ground reporting of the devastation they have left behind, some of which news is bound to filter into Russia and presumably increase the pressure on Putin domestically. For context, we should note that throughout March, Russian grain exports have continued from some home ports so grain execution is not completely seized up yet,  but it’s difficult to predict how long this can continue and UK sunflower oil processors reportedly have only 2-3 weeks supply left this weekend.

The USDA lobbed out some curious numbers for US 2022 planting intentions. Corn acres were dramatically below expectations but those of you with long memories might recall they did the same thing last year, only for the crop to eventually come in higher. In fairness it’s a difficult task to predict and their data was collected in very early March which already seems a lifetime ago. For all these reasons the market was quite happy to shrug off the report.

At home we have some rain in the forecast this week and near average temperature which will be useful for recently drilled spring crops. French crops are still in top condition but are seen as ready for a drink. They have rain coming as well so – notwithstanding events in Ukraine – we might see some gentle selling pressure appear in the market this week.

Have a good week