Monday Market Briefing - 21st March 2022

Markets remain jittery but ended flat sideways on the week. Traders have probably de-risked their positions by now and volatility has subsided as the urgent need to trade recedes; now we all await developments in Ukraine. Unlike oil and gas markets which could at least in theory correct quite quickly if peace comes, agriculture is at the mercy of the seasons, and missed opportunities on the calendar to drill or harvest crops will take a long time to resolve.

Last week’s International Grains Council monthly report acknowledges the uncertainties, but also starts to quantify the effects of the conflict, reducing world consumption and world trade, but with a corresponding increase in exporter Nation stocks unable to be shipped. The stats will be more difficult than ever to interpret going forward. The Shoreham farmers meeting we hosted on Thursday led to a lively open discussion on the road ahead and the difficult decisions farmers are faced with. PowerPoint copies of the presentation itself are available for those who couldn’t make it on the day.

Big premiums for new crop milling wheat and malting barley offer farmers a route to securing some value against high input costs now being incurred. Markets are more readily traded now than even one week ago, and with spring visibly breaking out in southern England, a cautious toe in the water is probably a good idea, especially if you haven’t sold any yet.  

Have a good week.