Monday Market Briefing - 19th July 2021

In last week’s note we hinted that the market was taking a very optimistic stance over the potential size of the worlds grain crop, well that didn’t last too long did it ? Nov LIFFE closed £12 higher on the week. Talk had already turned to whether the US corn crop was really going to achieve the record yield forecast for it, but in fact corn had a quiet week overall. From mid-week onwards it was all suddenly about wheat. The shocking pictures of flooding in Germany and their close neighbours came in just as Russia further down-graded their own wheat crop and hot weather reached the Northern US milling wheat areas. We wish our many friends on the near continent all good speed in recovering from their weather catastrophe.  

So, this is quite a different market rally to the one we saw in April/May, this time it’s very much wheat driven. So long as prices go up does it matter? Well, after trading at a discount to corn in recent weeks, wheat has now opened up a healthy premium over the feed grain on all major exchanges. This potentially changes the dynamics of feed trade significantly but also opens up great opportunities for quality wheats when we know we have some.

At home the UK was fortunate to move into a hot dry spell of weather which brought on the first winter barley harvested on Thursday/Friday. Yield and quality appear to be ok but not so far above average, its very early days. There is healthy demand for spot material only limited by transport availability probably, so speak to your farm buyer if you are thinking of moving some early.

Have a good week and stay safe.