Monday Market Briefing – 13th July 2020
As our picture shows, combines were rolling in sight of Chichester Cathedral today as the barley harvest accelerates. Some early deliveries into our Shoreham facility topped 71kg - an encouraging sign as it's much easier to market a big crop if it has good quality. It's too early to predict our yields overall but on the Continent there are still rumblings about poor wheat yields that have kept the market on the front foot all last week. NOV 20 Futures briefly reached £170 again before settling just below, held back a little by slightly stronger currency and a lack of excitement in the latest USDA report published Friday.
There is a brisk trade going on for prompt movement of barley and hopefully this will continue. French winter barley may not have yielded but a lot of it will upgrade to malting use - making it very attractive to international buyers such as China. Hence we have a slightly absurd situation now where French 'feed' barley is several Euros more expensive than English Spring Malting Barley for autumn delivery. We all know the Brexit related circumstances that have brought us here but this is a nonsense - European maltsters will want to cram our spring barley into every nook and cranny before December 31st if they can buy it anywhere near current values, and the UK discount to wheat might soon start to look too wide.
Oat markets have already firmed as harvest approaches, this crop may turn out to be a useful cash generator in the harvest period with good demand for August movement from UK consumers. A lot is riding on the performance of Elyann this year as it represents more than half the total oat crop. If the crop meets specification the UK will have a quiet trading year with any lower grade samples being fed on farm, but if it comes up short there could be fireworks. The 2021 BAF Standard Terms Contract is approaching capacity now. If you are still thinking about cropping plans for next year, please don’t miss out on the last remaining LIFFE linked deals for Mascani.