Monday Market Briefing – 11th May 2020

UK wheat was quietly supported last week, finishing at a €3/MT discount to French after being at parity during April. This suggests there might be a little more value to be had. A severe cold snap in the US has caused some damage to wheat and soybean crops that has lent some further support. Earlier dryness in Black Sea continues to add concern to the final wheat output total for this region. Estimates of 2020 world wheat production continue to be trimmed everywhere, but it has to be said we still expect a near record global wheat crop.

It is encouraging to note that France shipped 1.5 mln tonnes of wheat in April, a multi-year high for the month. Wheat shipments are clearly not, so far, being interrupted by the pandemic and we are seeing the same in our own programme at Shoreham. Spot demand for milling wheats especially is very healthy due to higher bagged flour consumption in homes.

The economic statistics starting to emerge around the lockdown’s impact are truly mind-boggling; 33 mln jobs lost in the US for just one example. We need to focus here on our own UK markets and it is not clear what the medium term impact of the crisis will be. However, strong demand from importers looking to maintain food stocks appears the main factor for now and will probably continue to support markets for the immediate future.

Have a good week and stay safe.

Bartholomews Grain Marketing Team