Monday Market Briefing - 10th May 2021

Worries about corn supply for the coming season continue to drive all markets. London Nov Wheat gained £8 on the week but could not keep pace with French Corn where we now trade at a discount. China bought 1.5 million tonnes of US corn again just as analysts further downgrade the Brazilian crop soon to be harvested in very dry conditions.

It’s getting difficult to make the numbers add up on world grain use next year, and persistent rumours that Chinas corn stocks might be quite a lot less than the USDA thought won’t help. Anyway, the USDA takes another stab at the world situation this Wednesday (due 17:00 our time) – the most pessimistic forecasts around price in a lack of rain in Brazil throughout the harvest period, which hasn’t happened yet so the USDA is unlikely to report production as low as that. Whether markets are bothered by this is another matter- but there is room for a short term correction this week.

US corn drilling is ahead of schedule which does create the potential for that crop to exceed expectations if it gets perfect weather from now on. European wheat crops lost some condition again but are still viewed as largely in good health.

Have a good week and stay safe.