Tuesday Market Briefing - 2nd May 2023

An improved weather outlook for the US helped their wheat and corn markets find new lows for the recent sell-off. In fact, US soft red winter wheat for May-July delivery, now finds itself even cheaper than the best Black Sea offers from Ukraine that are currently available. It’s a remarkable situation, with many now expecting the Black Sea safe corridor to expire without renewal on May 18th - job done for this year – the question will be is there enough demand left in the system to mop up the US wheat available at these low prices?

The mere fact that the world's remaining exportable wheat surplus is now focussed in a readily accessible origin, probably keeps a lid on prices for the short term, but any sudden upswing in US export sales will be keenly watched out for. Global grain supply and demand for 2023-24 still looks very tight, and it is easy to imagine we are now at the bottom of the price cycle here.

With two vessels per week on our berths in May, we are into a busy period again. UK ex farm sales are healthy as old crop gets sorted out. We are obviously not going to run out of anything, but it must be said it does not really feel like we are drowning in the large UK surpluses predicted. There are orderly routes to market for pretty much anything you have left unsold, so keep in touch with your farm trader to find out what ships are in each week.

Have a good week.