Tuesday Market Briefing - 1st September 2020

Markets stayed on the front foot last week. Friday’s Nov20 close at £169.00 was one of the highest of the year and it might have been higher without a strong Pound to hold things back slightly. Meanwhile, IGC and USDA both upped their projections to confirm the 2020-21 season is expected to produce the world’s biggest ever wheat crop and biggest ever corn crop, both in the same year.

Clearly then, even with increased demand, there is going to be plenty to go around,  but that isn’t much comfort if you need supply now. Most of the gains are expected in southern hemisphere crops later in the year. For the time being European farmers hold the key and, with much reduced crops, they aren’t selling fast enough to meet demand. Does the market have the appetite to break new ground on the upside?  MATIF traded slightly lower on Monday whilst the UK had its feet up, so perhaps not in a  shortened week but prices remain supported.

At home, milling wheat premiums are strong. Later harvested southern crops so far seem to have come though the weather okay. Wheat is flowing steadily into the UK from Germany and Canada (milling) as well as Denmark (feed).  Barley markets are yet to get going properly with a lot of sample information being gathered. Oats look tight; late sown mascani hasn’t done well at all. Many samples of spring oats are much better, probably lifting the whole crop up out of the feed market, and there will be good deals to be had here as we go into autumn.

Have a good week and stay safe.