Monday Market Briefing
Shipping Activity
MV Carolyn G : loads Planet Malting Barley, Shoreham
MV Sea Kestrel : loads Group 1 Milling Wheat, Shoreham
The week starts with heavy losses in stock markets worldwide. The accelerating spread of coronavirus worldwide and the measures taken to contain it over the weekend, all contribute to a massive shock to the world’s economy. Oil prices have been affected by the global economic slowdown, but also by Saudi Arabia’s decision to increase crude oil production despite an agreement between OPEC and Russia to limit global availability.
However, markets will continue to function although demand for grains has decreased. Commodity markets do not always follow these trends in financial markets, but we can expect a bumpy ride in the short-term as buyers take cover. It feels like the UK market for old crop wheat is seeing more sellers than buyers, which fits with the picture of a large old crop surplus to carry into new crop.
Spring plantings in the UK are now slightly behind the calendar with more rain in the forecast for Western
Europe. Domestically it is not yet a major concern, but spring barley plantings in France are 35% against an average planting figure of 80-85%. Last week there were the first indications of market reaction to this situation although this will be lost in the wider crisis temporarily.
We still require old crop Group 1’s and the shipping programme allows a good opportunity to tidy up remaining malting barley especially where we have moved existing contracts. Old crop beans are a strongly supported market due to low availability of high-pro soya imports.
We will soon be launching the 2021 BAF Standard Terms Milling Oat Contract – keep an eye on the website,
together with an accompanying briefing on oat market prospects.
The weather forecast looks a little better this week, good for Cheltenham at least!
Have a good week.
Bartholomews Grain Marketing Team