Monday Market Briefing - 3rd July 2023

New crop rapeseed should provide the excitement this week after Fridays bombshell USDA update. A dramatic swing by US farmers out of soybeans to grow more corn leaves beans beyond tight and possibly facing a rationing situation this coming season. Rapeseed of course tracks the US bean pretty faithfully and should benefit in this week’s price action. The increased corn acres are buffered slightly by lower ending stocks for this campaign as well as the poor condition of the crop in key areas, but the increased acres are dramatic and likely to draw renewed selling pressure which ultimately feeds into wheat exchanges as well. Expect the wheat /corn premium to widen as the wheat numbers were relatively neutral, the long term decrease in US winter wheat harvested acres is seen continuing.

Rain showers at home delayed the start of the UK harvest with the first winter barley samples now expected this week. There is rain for us in the Tuesday forecast so it’s looking like a catchy start this year. We always look to the earlier French harvest for clues at this stage and the picture there is becoming a little mixed. Winter barley has been excellent throughout – this will be a factor in the malting market this time round – but the early sown spring barleys in the south-west are not so good with very thin crops reported.

Have a good week.