Monday Market Briefing - 22nd February 2021

Wheat markets did find support last week in the US cold weather - it’s such an unusual event for the southern States we just don’t know how serious the damage might have been to wheat crops already in ear. Old and new crop both gained as buyers looked to take advantage of Chinas temporary holiday absence and get some trades on. There was even a report of a large feed barley trade to South America for French origin as if that crop wasn’t tight enough already.

USDA has released its first projections for 2021-22 crops for the US. Remarkably, despite anticipating a near 10 million acre surge in overall acreage and pointing to a huge, never-before-seen yield prediction for corn this year, they still foresee practically no recovery in ending stocks next year for either wheat, corn or beans.  Rarely can the demand picture have been painted more starkly. Of course, you could argue that if nothing goes wrong anywhere, everything will be just fine, markets are not going to race higher just yet. However, we are expecting to see a gradual emergence from lockdown very soon now. Any increase in trade activity associated with that, can only bring more support to markets , we expect another modestly positive week.

Old crop barley is keenly sought – feed especially - speak to us if you have any balances as there are good movement slots available.  For existing BAF storage customers, this week marks the deadline for declaring your 2021 requirements. Any remaining space will shortly go on general release – your farm trader can provide more information if you think this might be of interest for you this year.

Have a good week and stay safe.