Monday Market Briefing - 18th December 2023

With so little to talk about in our sleepy European markets at the moment, attention is drawn to the wider World for grain stories that might give a clue to the next price moves. Chinese authorities reported another new record grain crop for 2023 at 695 million tonnes. It’s a staggering amount and their ninth consecutive annual advance but still lagging some way behind domestic grain consumption hence they will remain a key target for grain exporters everywhere for the foreseeable.  

Argentina are the latest Country to sign a wheat protocol with China, they are also expected to supply malting barley into Europe this year if their harvest makes the grade. So political events there this week could make some waves. The new Argentine Government halted the issuing of grain export licences last week ahead of a 50% devaluation of their currency, the Peso. On the face of it, such a devaluation is a bonanza for farmers there, dramatically increasing the Peso price of their crops, but a complex system of export taxes means it’s unclear how their export surplus gets to US Dollar denominated markets when licencing resumes. 

These kinds of uncertainties tend to lead to firmer markets so we wait to see the effect if any. At home there are some glimmers of interest for post Christmas trade but there is no sense of urgency from buyers. For the markets it looks like a quiet run into the holidays.  

This is going to be a typically busy Christmas for us at Shoreham with three vessels arriving to load across the Holiday period- our thanks go to all involved in keeping things moving.  

We wish everyone a very Happy Christmas, the briefing will return on Monday 8th January when we start to look ahead to the prospects for 2024.