Monday Market Briefing - 15th May 2023

Markets found some support in Fridays USDA numbers. At first glance viewed as bearish but – not for the first time – a puzzlingly optimistic estimated corn yield for the US meant that attention soon switched to the rather less rosy US wheat outlook. Elsewhere, Brazil looks set next year to breach 300 million tonnes output for corn/soybeans combined for the first time. That’s an awful lot of rain forest gone and, guess what, in the same week we learn that forecasters are now 80% confident of a major, destructive ‘El Nino’ weather event developing this year – is anyone bothering to join up these dots anymore? Apparently not, but really the likelihood of current world crop projections being realised in 2023-24 has to be viewed with caution.

With that said, economies continue to struggle everywhere, there doesn’t appear to be enough demand in the system right now to test these markets, so a choppy sideways trade is probably on the cards for a while longer yet.

 There’s a lot of old crop grain moving now as everyone rushes to clear the decks for harvest. The exceptional quality of last year’s UK crop makes it a very attractive insurance policy against the unknown new crop, and this will keep spot interest bubbling along for late season sellers- despite the apparent over supply, there are still very healthy premiums available for anything with a bit of quality to it – call your farm trader for the latest quotes.

 Have a good week.